All Canadian business wants for Christmas is an election
By Theo Argitis
It’s fair to say that corporate Canada has been less than enthusiastic about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s proposed plan to cap greenhouse gas emissions in the nation’s oil and gas sector.
Responses to the announcement – which was made Dec. 7 - ranged from outright rejection (Chamber of Commerce) to skeptical (Pathways Alliance) to - at best - silence.
This may or may not have been a surprise to Trudeau and his two top lieutenants driving the policy – Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault.
Clearly, the federal government produced something it believes is balanced and pragmatic. The plan effectively lowers 2030 targets by as much as half for the sector, bringing them to within levels the industry has indicated may be achievable.
Adam Radwanski wrote in the Globe and Mail how the federal government is calling the “industry’s bluff” with the less onerous caps. Aaron Wherry at the CBC used similar language, calling Trudeau’s move a “reckoning” for the sector.
Does it matter?
The better question is whether any of it matters.
There are many good reasons for business to be lukewarm to the plan, starting with how it undermines the federal government’s entire carbon pricing framework. But the best reason is that it may never get implemented at all.
In his report on the announcement, CBC’s Alberta-based Jason Markusoff gets closer to the crux of the problem: Would there have been any federal emissions cap that would have secured the support of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who sees the move as unconstitutional? The same question applies to business.
Given the high probability the Liberal government won’t last beyond October 2025, at the latest, business may find it difficult to endorse anything Trudeau proposes that is medium-term in nature - environment policy and beyond.
On climate, while the Conservatives haven’t revealed much in terms of how they would change things, the smart betting is that they’ll likely change a lot.
It's hard to see Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre sticking to the Liberals’ 2030 target to cut national emissions by at least 40 per cent.
Poilievre will likely reverse economy-wide regulations set up by Trudeau for methane and clean electricity, and drop the oil and gas cap plan which - by the way - only kicks in after the next election.
Under a Poilievre government, the feds would defer to provinces as much as possible on things like output-based carbon pricing. You can also expect less enthusiasm for all the subsidies being thrown at green investments under the guise of “industrial policy.”
It’s also hard to see the Conservatives keeping the Liberal government’s financial backstop for its carbon pricing plan - the so-called Contracts for Difference.
There will even be questions about whether a Conservative government would be committed to the $80 billion framework for green investment tax credits. While Conservatives do prefer tax credits to spending, they may have other ideas about how to use such a big fiscal envelope.
Policy landscape
Given the potential for a massive shift in the policy landscape, some executives may think the smart move is to wait for the next election that will come with a fresh mandate for one of the parties. Why ramp up your business’s climate action plan if you don’t really know what the rules will look like?
It’s not just about the uncertainty associated with regime change. There’s also the risk that Liberal policy will become increasingly incoherent if polls continue to show a big lead for the Conservatives. Trudeau’s decision to give an exemption to the carbon price for Atlantic Canadians - on what seems to be political grounds - may only just be the beginning.
The dead-policy-walking risk applies to everything, whether it be how the nation proceeds with a more open banking system, which the Liberals are studying, to finding qualified candidates for important government positions – like a new head for the nation’s housing agency. There are even questions around the future of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, who Poilievre has threatened to fire.
About half of the country’s 20 largest companies are directly regulated by the federal government. On top of that, the growing web of environmental rules captures much of the resource sector under the federal government’s regulatory umbrella.
Who will run the government is important and a cloud of uncertainty will hover over business until an election answers that question.
