We asked our public affairs counsellors what they’re expecting and things they’re watching for when the House returns. Here are some hot takes:

Graham Milner, Lead Public Affairs Counsellor

The Cabinet Committee on Operations—where ministers chart their parliamentary affairs course—will become increasingly important as the Government House Leader looks to implement an agenda without inadvertently causing the government to fall. Oh, and parliamentary committees… they are going to be toxic.

Andrea Sarkic, Lead Public Affairs Counsellor

Conservatives have plenty of chum in the water as Parliament returns, in the form of SACA being torn up, 'Carbon tax Carney' now advising the Liberal Party on an economic platform, an uncertain by-election on the island in Quebec, and a mass exodus of senior Liberal government staff, just to name a few.

While the murky middle offers little certainty to minority relationships and support for the Liberals across the NDP and Bloc, the Conservatives have open waters to continue defining themselves and the other parties/leaders, road-testing CPC platform ideas and slogans and positioning Poilievre as the clear choice for prime minister.

Meanwhile, the Liberals will need to redefine themselves and continue pushing forward on platform promises and legacy mandates while swimming against the current in a true minority position on committees and in the House.

Expect affordability to remain top of mind, the Manitoba and Quebec by-elections to test the NDP pulse, the U.S. election to potentially steer political narrative in Canada and provincial voices to remain loud through Saskatchewan, B.C. and New Brunswick elections and federal calls for collaboration.

Kathleen Walsh, Lead Public Affairs Counsellor

The death of SACA will soon be forgotten. Having to work a minority parliament like a minority parliament is not a bad place to be for a government expecting an election within the next year. However, the government will have to weather very dysfunctional parliamentary committees that will only get worse without NDP-backing and ever-deteriorating decorum in the House. The NDP has no choice but to try to outplay the Liberals on progressive policies, while the Liberals try to recapture the centre with Mark Carney leading an economic growth agenda. The Conservatives have the most messaging and policy space to occupy this sitting with road-tested slogans and clear positions, having already staked out their clear contrast to the Liberals and NDP.

Kelly Hutchinson, Practice Lead and Public Affairs Counsellor, Digital Government and Procurement

The Real Housewives of Government Operations Committee (OGGO) will continue to rattle the Liberals in the upcoming sitting. Do not let the political theatre take your eyes off the digital government and procurement initiatives in PSPC, SSC and TBS or you will miss an opportunity to influence the work being done in tandem to restructure these organizations and implement stronger solutions to improve the procurement, delivery and security of federal services in Canada.

On a national scale, we will see the Canadian Cyber Centre roll-out partnership agreements with the provinces in anticipation of Bill C-27 and their role in protecting Canada’s critical infrastructure. Always out of the gate first with an MOU is British Columbia (published this week) but we expect all others to follow suit (less Quebec) in the coming months.

Ken Polk, Public Affairs Counsellor

Political power abhors a vacuum. It either flows toward a leader or away, and it is almost impossible to reverse the directional flow. Having experienced the last months of Prime Minister Jean Chretien’s administration, I know the feeling—and it is miserable. It becomes steadily harder to maintain caucus discipline and, frankly, even to get your calls returned.

This Fall, I will be looking for signs that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is starting to hear that giant sucking sound of his power ebbing away. The polls have been bad for over a year. Safe seats are now at risk in by-elections. The SACA has been lost. As they say in the United Kingdom, there comes a point where a Prime Minister is in office but not in power. Trudeau seems intent on remaining in office. But his MPs may start acting as though he is not in power.