Poilievre finds himself in the unprecedented position of running against the adversary he expected (the Liberals) and the adversary he didn’t: the most powerful man in the world, writes Ken Polk.

The initial uncertainty among Conservatives on how to deal with Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney was on full display yesterday. After Carney’s massive win in the Liberal leadership race, there wasn't a Conservative pundit on the air or in the room or online who wasn’t reminding people — and no doubt themselves — about the shooting stars and epic fails of John Turner in 1984 and Kim Campbell in 1993.

For his part, Pierre Poilievre attempted to pre-empt the Liberals with an impressive show of partisan strength, holding a rally in London, Ont., attended by at least as many supporters as were at Carney’s elephantine coronation in Ottawa.

Poilievre threw everything but the kitchen sink at Carney, testing out lines of attack that ran the gamut from “Carbon Tax Carney,” to his being more of the same failed Liberal record, to his being Justin Trudeau's chosen heir, to the move of Brookfield Asset Management to New York from Toronto, to the fact that the disclosure of his private wealth may come after an election. The Conservatives have plenty of opposition research left in the can to tag Carney with. Not all of the lines will work. But some certainly will. That is just the way of politics. Everyone has vulnerabilities that can be exposed and exploited.

No doubt, Poilievre would have preferred that Trudeau had stayed around for a mortal shellacking in the coming election. But given the ruthlessness with which the Liberal Party can dispense with even successful leaders (Hello Jean Chrétien!), Poilievre and his team have surely planned for Trudeau’s possible ouster.

His top adviser, Jenni Byrne, has also frequently gone on record to the effect that the Liberal Party of Canada has the strongest, most resilient political brand in Canadian history. So she would have been anticipating and advising her leader to expect a Liberal comeback of some kind. The shift of Conservative advertising into a full-throated assault on Carney shows that they understood well in advance who was going to be their election opponent. Poilievre’s team will be on alert to pounce on any errors committed by the politically inexperienced Carney.

Turner and Campbell have become handy examples to cite of initial political bubbles that can burst to devastating effect. However, the circumstances and contexts that led to their respective faceplants were as different as their respective weaknesses as political leaders. As we often say, campaigns matter, and all campaigns are different.

But what keeps every campaign up at night is the things they cannot control. Enter President Donald Trump. Poilievre knew that the president had a good chance at re-election and Poilievre is aware of the line of attack that he is a Canadian version of Trump.

But what they could not have anticipated — because no one did — was the massive assault Trump would make on the Canadian economy and political independence. Trump’s assault has blotted out the Canadian political and media sun, rendering any connection with Trump politically toxic, no matter how tenuous. Worse, the president cannot seem to stop himself from rushing to any microphone or camera that is available, every day, to insult Canada and our institutions in ever more lurid ways.

So, Poilievre finds himself in the unprecedented position of running against the adversary he expected (the Liberals) and the adversary he didn’t: the most powerful man in the world. He has to prepare for an election in which the president is liable to utter some new and outrageous lie or distortion at any time during the campaign. Judging by Carney’s acceptance speech on Sunday, the Liberals seem ready to amp up the anti-Trump rhetoric and to try and tattoo him to Poilievre.

For Conservatives, understandably nervous about this emerging dynamic, Poilievre has shown commendable sangfroid.

He has already adopted a tough tone with Trump with the party’s new Canada First message and a very prime ministerial speech in which he called out Trump for stabbing Canada in the back. It was humourous watching pundits, the media and the Conservatives themselves split hairs over whether Poilievre was making a shift or not. In reality, what counts is the message, not the maneuver. And his message on Trump is in the right space.

As we have written before in this space, the Trump threat is fundamentally economic. Poilievre has owned this space for two years, with at least a solid outline of policies tailor-made to kick-start the Canadian economy even as Trump continues to re-write the rules of continental and global commerce.

Above all, Poilievre has the luxury of being opposition leader with no responsibility or accountability for the current state of affairs, a theme that remains a core part of his argument for kicking out the Liberals who left us so dependent on the United States — and vulnerable to an erratic president — in the first place.

Just weeks ago, it looked like the Liberals had run out of time to pull out of the political doom spiral they had been in for two years. Now the Conservatives have to be wondering if they have enough time to ride out the apparent Liberal surge and the Trump 2.0 effect before Canadians cast their votes.

Whether Poilievre can keep his nerve as this volatile dynamic threatens to play itself out in the glare of the snap election he has consistently called for — and the more confident Liberals now seem ready to give him — remains to be seen.