#elxn44: The ballot question and connecting with Canadians

#elxn44 ballot question: who can trust us more?, Compass Rose logo, LPC: trust us, CPC: Throw them out, NDP: Don’t trust the liberals, BQ: Don’t trust the liberals, GPC: TBC

Success in elections goes to the party able to define the ballot question that is top of mind for voters. Here’s where we see each going. 

Liberals: Trust us

The Liberals appear to be putting all of their money down on trust. They want to translate the trust they have earned from Canadians on their pandemic response into a majority mandate. This will allow the party to implement the expensive post-pandemic agenda laid out in Budget 2021. 

This calculation is easy to understand, but it means the governing party is hostage to sudden negative shifts on pandemic-related issues during an election. As such, the expectation is that the election will be close to the minimum required 36 days.

Conservatives: Throw them out

The Conservatives are betting that Canadians are tired of what the opposition believes are the serial ethical lapses and incompetence of the Trudeau government; the country is ready for a change. 

The Conservatives’ challenge is that the appetite for change is not evident beyond their voter base. Making this a change election in a short campaign will require hitting on an issue that catches on quickly. 

To their credit, the Conservatives have a proven genius for identifying “kitchen table” issues that do just that.

New Democrats: Don’t trust the Liberals

From time immemorial, the New Democrats have argued that the Liberals can’t be trusted to deliver truly progressive policies. In 2015 and 2019, the NDP got caught in the classic vise of Canadian politics: progressive fear of a Conservative government. 

The current, weaker-than-normal support for Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives means that this threat may be less salient. Throw in the apparent self-immolation of the Green Party and Jagmeet Singh’s strong appeal to young voters, and the NDP may have a recipe for success this time around. 

Bloc Quebecois: Don’t trust the Liberals  

The Bloc’s enduring presence in parliament is due to an inherent distrust among Quebeckers of an intrusive federal government. 

However, the party now finds itself competing with a Liberal government that has made nice on every issue with the popular, nationalist government of Premier François Legault. 

To safeguard their 2019 resurgence in the province, the Bloc needs to find and exploit a gap between Trudeau and Legault that reminds Quebeckers that the Bloc is their authentic voice in Ottawa.

Green Party: To be confirmed

These should be salad days for the Greens. Climate change continues to rise in the list of voters’ concerns and it is the party’s raison d’etre. 

Shockingly, the party chose this exact moment to prioritize winning internal fights over winning votes. 

Whether embattled leader Annamie Paul can right the ship in time to mount a coherent election message remains to be seen.